U.S. politcal outlook prediction update

Almost two years ago, I predicted that Mr. Obama would win if the Republicans put a moderate in place.  Furthermore, the House and the Senate would stay the same.  For 2016, the Republicans will put a real conservative in place, possibly Chris Christie.  The Republican landslide in the 2016 election will be Reaganesque in magnitude to include the loss of the Senate.  I’ll add a few more details:

  • In 2014, the House and Senate will hold their current majorities although to a lesser extent

  • DOMA will still be the law of the land, despite a growing number of states passing marital equality laws

  • Our credit rating will not improve above AA+

  • The Department of Homeland Security will expand

  • The national debt will increase at a somewhat slower rate but it will be nearly $20 trillion by 2016

  • We will still be in Afghanistan

  • Unemployment will hover around 8

  • Things will be stagnant through Mr. Obama’s second term as a mixed Congress will never allow him to get any of his pet projects passed.  There will be one exception because Mr. Obama will present something more moderate and that will get passed

  • Our trade deficit will increase

  • Businesses going offshore will increase

  • Bankruptcies will increase in 2014 when the full set of laws under Obamacare hit small to medium businesses

  • An increasing number of Republicans will become “liberty-minded” and more libertarian planks will find their way into the Republican platform for 2016

Just remember, if you always do what you always did, you will always get, what you’ve always gotten.

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