U.S. politcal outlook prediction update

Almost two years ago, I predicted that Mr. Obama would win if the Republicans put a moderate in place.  Furthermore, the House and the Senate would stay the same.  For 2016, the Republicans will put a real conservative in place, possibly Chris Christie.  The Republican landslide in the 2016 election will be Reaganesque in magnitude to include the loss of the Senate.  I’ll add a few more details:

  • In 2014, the House and Senate will hold their current majorities although to a lesser extent

  • DOMA will still be the law of the land, despite a growing number of states passing marital equality laws

  • Our credit rating will not improve above AA+

  • The Department of Homeland Security will expand

  • The national debt will increase at a somewhat slower rate but it will be nearly $20 trillion by 2016

  • We will still be in Afghanistan

  • Unemployment will hover around 8

  • Things will be stagnant through Mr. Obama’s second term as a mixed Congress will never allow him to get any of his pet projects passed.  There will be one exception because Mr. Obama will present something more moderate and that will get passed

  • Our trade deficit will increase

  • Businesses going offshore will increase

  • Bankruptcies will increase in 2014 when the full set of laws under Obamacare hit small to medium businesses

  • An increasing number of Republicans will become “liberty-minded” and more libertarian planks will find their way into the Republican platform for 2016

Just remember, if you always do what you always did, you will always get, what you’ve always gotten.

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My Next to Ideal 2012 Election Result

The ideal result for 2012 is that Ron Paul would win and for eight years, he’d return the country to a Constitutional Republic where the Constitution is the rule of law and populist prejudices fade into the realm of repealed unconstitutional laws.

However, the shallow conservatives and RINOs won’t vote for him because they won’t dig 2cm past his elderly exterior and whinely voice to notice that he is the only person among the campaigners that understands the concept of liberty, even when it is inconvenient and uncomfortable.

Chris Christie is too smart to run now. As much as I love Sarah as a person, her abdication of Alaska’s State House mid-first-term will always we be seen as a fatal flaw, even though Barry’s abdication of the Illinois junior Senator seat was identical. I predict Christie will run in either 2016 or 2020. 2016 will be the year if Barry wins 2012. It will be a Reagan-esque landslide. Also, if a weak RINO wins in 2012, Christie has enough backbone to challenge that person in 2016. 2020 will be the year if a decent Two-term Republican wins 2012.

Apart from the unlikely election of Ron, the best thing for the country will be for Barry to narrowly win re-election and accomplish next to nothing while Congress prevents him from enacting anything too stupid. The House and Senate will both get bumps toward the GOP and in 2014, the GOP will own both houses. The takeover of the Senate will be lead by truly conservative Republicans. Ron Paul’s highly visual but unsuccessful run and Rand Paul’s growth as a champion of libertarian ideals in the Senate will make many of those GOP senators “liberty-minded.” The Tea Party will cease to be the litmus test for true Republicans. Instead, conformance to many libertarian ideals will become the standard. Liberty-minded Democrats will also come on the scene. By 2016, the country will practically beg for a Chris Christie/Rand Paul ticket. The defeat of the Democratic ticket will be of Reaganssque proportions. The two poor losers will be the next Dukakis/Bentsen.

2016 to 2024 will become a Renaissance of Constitutionalism, the likes of which the country hasn’t seen since the 1700’s. If the Rapture happened somewhere during that time, it would be profoundly awesome!